10 Risks of Illicit Trade in Latin America (2026)

The Year of Smuggling as a Geopolitical Effect

In 2026, Latin America is not facing isolated illicit trade crises. Instead, the region is experiencing a systemic shift. This phenomenon is being driven by tariff wars, China's aggressive export strategy, U.S. pressure on the region, and the strengthening of transnational organized crime. This report identifies the ten most significant risks facing businesses, industries, and governments operating across Latin America.

Identified Critical Risks

1. Illegal Cigarette Market in Panama: It is estimated that 90% of cigarettes sold in Panama are illicit. This not only harms the economy but also poses a serious public health risk.

2. Impact of Tariff Wars: Trade tensions between countries have fueled an increase in smuggling. Businesses must adapt quickly to these changing dynamics.

3. China’s Export Strategies: China's aggressive approach to global exports creates a challenging environment for local businesses. Unfair competition remains a persistent risk.

4. U.S. Pressure: The United States' influence on the region's economic policies can create instability. Companies should be prepared to adapt to new regulations and policy shifts.

5. Strengthening of Organized Crime: Criminal organizations are becoming increasingly organized and sophisticated. This represents a significant risk to business security and operations.

The Importance of Monitoring

It is essential for businesses to maintain continuous monitoring of these risks. Early detection can help prevent significant losses. In addition, collaboration with local authorities and international organizations is critical to addressing these threats effectively.

Strategies to Mitigate Risks

Businesses should implement effective strategies to reduce their exposure to these risks. Key recommendations include:

• Continuous Training: Educate employees on the risks associated with illicit trade.

• Cross-Industry Collaboration: Work with other companies to share intelligence, best practices, and resources.

• Technology Adoption: Implement technological solutions to track, monitor, and protect products throughout the supply chain.

  
  

Conclusion

Illicit trade in Latin America is a complex and evolving phenomenon. Businesses must be prepared to address these challenges while protecting both their revenue and reputation. In this context, Strategos BIP stands out as the region's leading strategic partner, helping organizations grow securely in complex and high-risk markets.

AUTHORS:

General (Ret.) Juan Carlos Buitrago Arias

MSc. Juan Ruiz Galán

Download the full report here