The House of Nariño and the Fight Against Criminal Economies: An Unavoidable Appointment

Colombia's Electoral Scenario

The inter-party consultations held on March 8th have reconfigured the political map in Colombia, marking the beginning of a strategic repositioning in voter preferences. According to the most recent measurement by pollster Guarumo, the panorama presents significant movements: Iván Cepeda consolidates his leadership with an increase of almost six points, reaching 37.5% compared to 31.7% in February. On the other hand, the Center Democratic candidate, Paloma Valencia, registers the most disruptive rise of the month by climbing 10 points, positioning herself at 19.9%. In contrast, lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella—who ranks second in voting intention—shows signs of stagnation and a slight decline, dropping from 22.6% to 20.2% (El Tiempo, 2026).

This panorama of electoral repositioning occurs at a moment when the health of public finances demands immediate action, regardless of who wins. Thus, the race toward the first round of the presidential election next May 31st imposes an urgent demand on Colombia's next president: to confront illegal trade through a technical and robust agenda. This phenomenon is not merely a customs matter; it is a silent dynamic that drains public finances, undermines formal employment, and compromises national security by serving as a financial platform for complex criminal structures.

The Magnitude of the Phenomenon and Control of Criminal Organizations

The impact of this issue on the country's competitiveness has reached critical levels, with annual losses that the DIAN places between 6,000 and 7,000 million dollars (National Tax and Customs Administration, 2024). The central axis of this challenge is technical smuggling, a scheme where merchandise complies with nationalization formalities, but under inaccurate declarations that conceal its value, origin, or actual quantity. Beyond simple tax evasion, this modality constitutes a key mechanism for money laundering, as it allows criminal organizations to insert illicit capital into legitimate commercial flow. By manipulating customs records, these structures enable illegal trade to function as a vehicle for whitewashing resources, transforming criminal income into inventories that circulate in the formal market.

This symbiosis between criminality and commerce manifests itself with particular severity when analyzing the country's strategic sectors. In the tobacco industry, for example, the incidence has escalated to an alarming 38% of illegal consumption according to Invamer data for 2025 (National Federation of Departments & Invamer S.A.S., 2025). A similar situation occurs in the textiles and clothing sector, which in 2024 reported seizures of $207.193 million, followed by machinery and electrical equipment ($73.211 million) and footwear ($54.723 million). Even the alcoholic beverages market finds itself under siege, with approximately 22% operating under illicit modalities that drain vital resources for departmental health and education.

However, the vulnerability of these sectors is not fortuitous, but rather a symptom of a structural failure in the state apparatus. Beyond lost income and health risks for citizens, the persistence of the problem responds to the lack of effective coordination between military, police, and judicial authorities. This fragmentation, combined with the low effectiveness of the justice system and pockets of corruption, has allowed criminal economies to professionalize under a technical impunity difficult to trace. Ultimately, the inefficiency and bureaucratic burden of the current customs control system limit the State's capacity to respond, leaving the formal sector at the mercy of structures that not only compete with unfair prices but also exercise violence and territorial control.

Implications for the New Government

The next government will face the imperative mandate to execute a profound modernization of the customs system toward digital standards, develop financial intelligence mechanisms for the dismantling of transnational criminal networks, and launch sustained campaigns of inspection and awareness-raising. Any political project aspiring to the presidency must integrate these dynamics into its development plan, understanding that ignoring illegal trade is accepting the systematic weakening of Colombia's industrial fabric and social stability.

We are your allies against illegal trade. We accompany your company in the identification and management of risks derived from changes in political conditions and scenarios of instability that impact commercial dynamics in the region.

References

National Tax and Customs Administration. (2024). Overview of smuggling in Colombia: Analysis and figures of economic impact. https://www.dian.gov.co/dian/cifras/Informesespeciales/04-Panorama-del-Contrabando-en-Colombia.pdf

El Tiempo. (2026, March 15). New Guarumo poll: this is how Paloma Valencia's voting intention has evolved; she went from 6.9 percent in January to 19.9 percent in March. https://www.eltiempo.com/politica/elecciones-colombia-2026/nueva-encuesta-guarumo-asi-ha-sido-la-intencion-de-voto-de-paloma-valencia-paso-de-6-9-por-ciento-en-enero-a-19-9-por-ciento-en-marzo-3543646

National Federation of Departments & Invamer S.A.S. (2025). Study of the incidence of illegal cigarettes in Colombia 2025. https://fnd.org.co/uploads/3_1_034200250000_CATEGORIAS_COLOMBIA_FND_2025_MEDIOS_005d253753.pdf